India's GDP growth rate to be 6.5% or more for Q1 FY25-26?
Orderbook
Timeline
Overview
YES
65% Probability
1 h5 d1 w2 wAll
Stats
GDP rate of India for FY24-25 (in %)
What is GDP Growth and Why Does It Matter
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) measures the total value of goods and services produced in an economy.
The quarterly GDP growth rate shows how fast the economy is expanding compared to the same quarter last year.
It is a key indicator of overall economic health, investment climate, and employment trends.
Policymakers, businesses, and investors closely track it to make informed decisions.
What Could Push GDP Growth to 6.5% or More in FY25-26?
- Strong Domestic Consumption: Continued growth in private consumption, supported by rising incomes, urbanization, and favorable demographics.
- Government Capital Expenditure: Sustained high levels of public investment in infrastructure, as seen in the 8.2% capex growth in the first half of FY25, can crowd in private investment and boost overall demand.
- Export Momentum: Services exports, which grew 12.8% in early FY25, and steady merchandise export growth could support higher GDP growth.
- Healthy Agriculture: Above-normal monsoons and record Kharif crop production can boost rural incomes and consumption, strengthening the primary sector’s contribution.
- Policy Support and Reforms: New tax incentives, deregulation, and reforms to improve the business environment (Ease of Doing Business 2.0) can enhance productivity and investment.
- FDI Inflows: Rising foreign direct investment, up nearly 18% year-on-year in early FY25, can further stimulate growth.
- Stable Inflation: Headline inflation softening to 4.9% and expected to align near 4% in FY26 will support real purchasing power and consumption
What Risks Could Pull Growth Below 6.5%?
- Global Trade and Geopolitical Uncertainties: Heightened trade tensions, tariff increases, or global economic slowdowns (especially from the US or China) could dampen export demand and investment sentiment.
- External Shocks: A spike in oil prices or supply chain disruptions could raise input costs and stoke inflation, hurting consumption and investment.
- Fiscal Slippage: Higher-than-expected government spending or lower revenues could widen the fiscal deficit, crowding out private investment and raising borrowing costs.
- Weak Private Investment: If private sector investment fails to pick up despite government efforts, growth could underperform.
- Weather and Agriculture Risks: Adverse weather events or a weak monsoon could hit agricultural output and rural demand.
- Delayed Reforms: Slow progress on deregulation, labor, or land reforms could limit productivity gains and dampen medium-term growth.
What Should You Track Before Taking a Position?
- High-Frequency Economic Indicators: Monitor monthly trends in industrial production, PMI, e-way bill generation, electricity consumption, and vehicle sales for real-time demand signals.
- Private Consumption and Investment Data: Watch for quarterly updates on private final consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation.
- Export and FDI Trends
- Inflation and Monetary Policy
- Government Policy Announcements: Look for updates on budgetary support, new reforms, and tax incentives—especially those affecting consumer demand and business investment.
- Global Economic Developments: Pay attention to global growth forecasts, trade policy changes, and geopolitical events that could affect India’s external sector.
- Agricultural Output and Monsoon Reports: Early monsoon progress and crop production estimates can provide clues about rural demand
About the event
Source of Truth
Press Release by PIB
Trading started on
01 Jun, 2025
Event expires on
31 Aug, 2025
Event Overview & Statistics
Recent Performance and Context
FY24-25 Recap: India's GDP grew by 6.5% in 2024-25, making it the fastest-growing major economy globally.
Q4 FY24-25: Growth accelerated to 7.4% year-on-year, driven by construction and manufacturing, but analysts expect this momentum to moderate in...Read More
Rules
TIME- The event will expire at 05:30 PM on 31 August 2025 or earlier if reports are published. The event will be extended in case the reports are not released.
SETTLEMENT- The event will be settled within 24 hours of expiry.
RULE - Only the press release report by PIB ( pib.gov.i...Read More
DOWNLOAD APP FOR BETTER & FAST EXPERIENCE
